MEGA Earthquake Prediction in Asia using a Yearly Unit Periodicity

Shunji Murai*

Abstract

The objective of this research is to develop earthquake prediction in Asia using the yearly unit cycle of past mega earthquakes for supporting clearly targeting preparedness against earthquake disaster. Hereinafter mega earthquake means large earthquakes causing human casualties. The method is based on newly developed multiple year interval analyses between combinations of past mega earthquakes in each region derived from historical records. In this paper the new method is named Yearly Unit Cycle (YUC) method. Four case studies shown in the paper include East Japan Area, Myanmar, Indian Region and Indonesia where seriously damaging mega earthquakes have occurred in the past. The results demonstrate, based on long-term prediction of yearly units, that the year of 2026 for East Japan Area, the year of 2022 for both Myanmar and Indian Region and the year of 2023 for Indonesia, are the most likely repeatable years for mega earthquakes with magnitudes similar to those occurred in the past. In order to validate the reliability of the YUC method, four successful examples are demonstrated.

Keywords: Yearly Unit Cycle, mega earthquake prediction, Asia

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